HOVR vs Joby
Methodology · inputs · provenance
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Where every number on the previous page came from.

The simulator and economics views are driven by a single sourced dataset. Every value below is tagged with one of four provenance levels — verified proxy target unknown — so you can see exactly which numbers carry the weight of public filings, which lean on operator-class proxies, and which are still the manufacturer's own forecast pending real-world validation.

Section 01

Aircraft inputs

Specification Value Source & provenance
HOVR Cavorite X7 — Horizon Aircraft
ArchitectureHybrid-electricverifiedhorizonaircraft.com product page
Cert. statusPre-flight test, full-scale 2027 targetverifiedCTO interview, AIN, Mar 2026
MTOW6,000 lbverifiedhorizonaircraft.com
Pax capacity6verifiedhorizonaircraft.com
Cruise speed230 mphverifiedhorizonaircraft.com
Top speed280 mphverifiedhorizonaircraft.com — used for arrival-time and simulator calculations
Range500 miverifiedhorizonaircraft.com
Battery use per VTO11%verifiedCTO AIN interview Mar 2026
VTOs per charge9verifiedCTO AIN interview Mar 2026
In-flight recharge10 minverifiedCTO AIN interview Mar 2026
Cruise fuel burn55 gphproxyPT6A-67P (PC-12 NG class) cruise burn — HOVR has not announced PT6A variant. PT6A range across variants is ~30–90 gph, so this is the midpoint best-guess.
PT6A variantNot announcedunknownHOVR confirms "PT6A pusher prop" but customer choice on variant. PT6A-21 (550 shp) to PT6A-67 (1,700 shp) is a 3× range — affects fuel burn dramatically.
Maintenance reserve$270 / hrproxyPT6A operating cost references (turbine engine reserves, helicopter operator class)
Engine reserve$260 / hrproxyPT6A overhaul reserves — typical $400/hr split between maint + engine for hot-section + overhaul
Pilot cost$100 / hrproxyTurbine commercial pilot rate, lower than Joby's $176/hr (different aircraft class assumption)
Landing fees$50 / hrproxyOperator-class average for VTOL ops
Insurance$80 / hrproxyOperator-class hourly insurance cost
Battery kWhNot disclosedunknownHOVR confirms 400 lb battery + 11% per VTO + 9 VTOs/charge but not kWh capacity
Reserve threshold~20% fuelproxyAviation standard — HOVR has not published reserve policy
In-flight regen rate~15 mi cruise per VTO event regeneratedproxyEstimated from CTO's "few minutes" recharge comment × 230 mph cruise. Affects how quickly HOVR's VTO budget refills.
List price$10,000,000verifiedCEO interview statements 2025–2026
Cost / seat-mile$0.97targetKPMG independent assessment, commissioned by HOVR
Joby S4 — Joby Aviation
ArchitecturePure electricverifiedjobyaviation.com
Cert. statusFAA Stage 4 cleared (Mar 2026)verifiedFAA Federal Register
MTOW4,800 lbverifiedFAA Federal Register
Pax capacity4 + pilotverifiedjobyaviation.com
Cruise speed200 mphverifiedAircraft Insider Mar 2026
Top speed202 mphverifiedJoby published max — used for arrival-time and simulator calculations
Range150 miverifiedAircraft Insider Mar 2026
Ground recharge18 minverifiedAircraft Insider Mar 2026
Battery~165 kWhproxyEV Database third-party estimate, range 150–180 kWh — Joby has not published
Energy cost$104 / hrproxyDerived: $0.13/seat-mile × 4 seats × 200 mph cruise (component of $0.86 target)
Pilot cost$176 / hrproxyDerived: $0.22/seat-mile × 4 seats × 200 mph (component of $0.86 target)
Maintenance$152 / hrproxyDerived: $0.19/seat-mile × 4 seats × 200 mph (component of $0.86 target)
Landing fees$88 / hrproxyDerived: $0.11/seat-mile × 4 seats × 200 mph (component of $0.86 target)
Other ops$168 / hrproxyDerived: $0.21/seat-mile × 4 seats × 200 mph (infra + other components of $0.86 target)
Reserve threshold~20% batteryproxyAviation standard — Joby has not published reserve policy
Battery replacement$50,000 (10,000 cycles)proxyAviation Week range $16.5K–$82.5K, midpoint
List price$1,300,000target2021 analyst day disclosure
Cost / seat-mile$0.86target2021 analyst day; assumes 40 flights/day
Section 02

Mission inputs

Each mission below is an actual operator announcement, press release, or stated target market. No invented routes.

Mission Distance Avg pax Fare / seat Source
Section 03

Data quality, by provenance level

Verified

  • HOVR specs (architecture, MTOW, range, cruise, pax, VTO mechanics) from horizonaircraft.com + CTO AIN interview Mar 2026.
  • HOVR list price $10M from CEO interview statements 2025–2026.
  • Joby specs (MTOW, range, cruise, charge time) from FAA Federal Register + Aircraft Insider Mar 2026.
  • Mission distances + fares from Joby press releases (Dubai DXB→Palm Nov 2025, JFK→Manhattan Apr 2026, LAX→Century April 2026).

Proxy

  • Joby per-hour costs all derived from Joby's $0.86/seat-mile target by decomposing into per-seat-mile components and multiplying by 4 seats × 200 mph cruise. The total is sourced; the component split is industry-standard reasoning, not Joby's published breakdown.
  • Joby battery 165 kWh is EV Database's third-party estimate (150–180 kWh range) — Joby has never officially published battery capacity.
  • HOVR fuel burn 55 gph uses PT6A-67P (PC-12 NG class) as proxy. PT6A variants range from 30–90 gph; HOVR has not announced which variant the X7 will use.
  • HOVR maintenance + engine reserves from operator-class PT6A turbine references.
  • Both reserve thresholds (~20% battery / fuel) follow aviation norms; neither company has published policy.
  • HOVR in-flight regen rate (~15 mi cruise per VTO event) is estimated from CTO's "few minutes" recharge comment × 230 mph cruise.
  • Joby battery replacement $50K from Aviation Week's $16.5K–$82.5K range midpoint.

Target — manufacturer projection, not validated

  • Joby's $0.86/seat-mile is from their 2021 analyst day at 40 flights/day utilization. Bleecker Street Research publicly disputed this assumption as implausible at scale.
  • HOVR's $0.97/seat-mile is from a KPMG independent assessment commissioned by HOVR. Methodology not fully public.
  • Joby list price $1.3M is from the 2021 analyst day; HOVR list price $10M is from CEO interviews. Neither has been validated by an actual customer order at that price.

Unknown

  • Exact PT6A variant HOVR will use — affects fuel burn by up to 3×.
  • HOVR battery kWh capacity, hover/cruise power kW.
  • Joby battery exact weight, cycle life under real ops.
  • Certified crosswind hover envelope for either aircraft.
  • Real-world utilization rates (no commercial ops yet — affects every $/hr calculation).
  • Real-world maintenance costs at scale (HOVR pre-flight, Joby pre-revenue).
Section 04

Critical caveat

Neither aircraft is operating commercially yet. HOVR full-scale flight test target is 2027. Joby launches Dubai 2026 and US service late 2026. Every cost figure on the previous page is a pre-revenue projection. Treat the simulator as a structural comparison — the relative shape of each aircraft's economics — not a forecast of operator P&L.
Section 05

How the simulator works

Each flight cycle is decomposed into VTOL up (3 min), cruise at the aircraft's published speed, descent (3 min), turnaround (mission-specific), and — for Joby only — ground recharge (18 min). Cost-per-flight is the sum of the breakdown bars on the previous page; revenue is fare × average pax (or flat fare for cargo / medevac). Annual figures assume 330 operating days, 12 hours per day, and exclude downtime for scheduled maintenance and weather. Fleet payback is capex divided by fleet annual profit at the chosen utilization. The simulator animates at one simulated minute per real second.

VTO budget model (HOVR)

One "VTO event" = a single hover phase (takeoff or landing). A complete flight = 2 VTO events. Each VTO consumes 11% of HOVR's battery (sourced). Maximum 9 VTO events on a full charge (sourced). During cruise, the PT6A regenerates the battery at a proxy rate of ~15 mi cruise per VTO event — estimated from CTO's "few minutes" recharge comment × 230 mph cruise. The VTO counter caps at 9.

Battery model (Joby)

Joby drains battery linearly across its 150-mi range during cruise. Each VTO event consumes 11% (proxy from HOVR's published value — Joby has not disclosed). Reserve threshold of ~20% triggers a warning; below 20% the aircraft is "in reserve". After landing, ground recharge takes 18 min (sourced) before the aircraft can fly again.

Why Joby per-hour costs are derived, not sourced

Joby's 2021 analyst day disclosed a single number: $0.86/seat-mile as the all-in operating cost target at 40 flights/day utilization. The component breakdown ($0.13 energy + $0.22 pilot + $0.19 maintenance + $0.11 landing + $0.21 other) is the industry-standard decomposition for an electric VTOL operating at urban ranges — it produces the sourced $0.86 total when summed. To convert to per-hour rates for the simulator, each component is multiplied by 4 seats and 200 mph cruise. The total is sourced; the split is reasoning, not Joby's published numbers.

Why HOVR per-hour costs are operator-class proxies

HOVR's $0.97/seat-mile target was assessed by KPMG. The component breakdown in the simulator (fuel + pilot + maintenance + engine reserve + landing + insurance) uses operator-class PT6A turbine references because HOVR has not published a cost component breakdown. The total roughly matches the $0.97 target; individual line items are estimates that should not be treated as HOVR's published numbers.

PT6A variant assumption

HOVR has confirmed the X7 uses a Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6A pusher prop but has stated the specific variant is customer choice. The PT6A family ranges from PT6A-21 (550 shp, ~30–40 gph) to PT6A-67 (1,700 shp, ~70–90 gph) — a 3× spread in fuel burn. The simulator uses 55 gph as a midpoint best-guess from the PT6A-67P (PC-12 NG class) which closely matches HOVR's 6,000 lb MTOW and 230 mph cruise profile. Real fuel burn could be 30–70% lower or 30–70% higher than this proxy depending on actual variant selection.